Dynamic Panel Estimate-Based Health Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Rates to Inform Public Health Policy: Model Development and Validation

Journal of Medical Internet Research
James Francis OehmkeLori Ann Post

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19, is a global pandemic with higher mortality and morbidity than any other virus in the last 100 years. Without public health surveillance, policy makers cannot know where and how the disease is accelerating, decelerating, and shifting. Unfortunately, existing models of COVID-19 contagion rely on parameters such as the basic reproduction number and use static statistical methods that do not capture all the relevant dynamics needed for surveillance. Existing surveillance methods use data that are subject to significant measurement error and other contaminants. The aim of this study is to provide a proof of concept of the creation of surveillance metrics that correct for measurement error and data contamination to determine when it is safe to ease pandemic restrictions. We applied state-of-the-art statistical modeling to existing internet data to derive the best available estimates of the state-level dynamics of COVID-19 infection in the United States. Dynamic panel data (DPD) models were estimated with the Arellano-Bond estimator using the generalized method of moments. This statistical technique enables control of various deficiencies in a data set. The validity of the model ...Continue Reading

References

Jan 1, 1988·Epidemiologic Reviews·S B Thacker, R L Berkelman
Dec 22, 1999·Statistics in Medicine·G D Williamson, G Weatherby Hudson
Jul 27, 2000·Journal of Public Health Medicine·D A LawlorH G Dews
Jan 28, 2003·Mathematical Biosciences·Maia Martcheva, Carlos Castillo-Chavez
May 27, 2003·Science·Marc LipsitchMegan Murray
Jan 24, 2007·Health Policy and Planning·Philippe Calain
Nov 22, 2011·American Journal of Preventive Medicine·Lisa M Lee, Stephen B Thacker
Jan 18, 2018·Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy : Official Journal of the Japan Society of Chemotherapy·Naoko KariyaHiroyasu Iso
Apr 3, 2019·Physical Review. E·Li Chen
May 3, 2019·Journal of Biological Dynamics·Amar ShaJoydev Chattopadhyay
Jun 7, 2019·Nature Communications·Iacopo IacopiniVito Latora
Feb 14, 2020·Journal of Medical Virology·Lei Zhang, Yunhui Liu
Feb 20, 2020·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·Sibylle Bernard Stoecklin Investigation Team
Feb 20, 2020·The New England Journal of Medicine·Marc LipsitchLyn Finelli
Mar 8, 2020·Journal of Autoimmunity·Yongshi YangChristopher Chang
Mar 8, 2020·International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases·Hiroshi NishiuraAndrei R Akhmetzhanov
Mar 14, 2020·Journal of Medical Internet Research·Joana M BarrosDietrich Rebholz-Schuhmann
Mar 20, 2020·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Janice Hopkins TanneAcer Garcia Rada
Mar 28, 2020·The Lancet Infectious Diseases·Joseph A Lewnard, Nathan C Lo
Apr 1, 2020·The New England Journal of Medicine·Nicole LurieJane Halton
Apr 3, 2020·Clinical Microbiology and Infection : the Official Publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases·Nicola PetrosilloEskild Petersen
Apr 4, 2020·Science·Jon Cohen
Apr 4, 2020·Lancet·Gavin YameyKaci Kennedy McDade
Apr 8, 2020·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Rafael A CalvoRichard M Ryan
Apr 8, 2020·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Steven SancheRuian Ke
Apr 9, 2020·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·Henrik SjödinJoacim Rocklöv
Apr 9, 2020·Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology·Gregory Cavanagh, Carlos Wambier
Apr 11, 2020·Nature Reviews. Drug Discovery·Tung Thanh LeStephen Mayhew
Apr 19, 2020·Biotechnology Journal·Suh-Chin Wu
Apr 25, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Marino GattoAndrea Rinaldo
Apr 25, 2020·The New England Journal of Medicine·Monica GandhiDiane V Havlir
Apr 26, 2020·Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health·Arnaud Chiolero, David Buckeridge
May 10, 2020·Science·Barney S Graham
May 13, 2020·Science·Lawrence CoreyFrancis S Collins
May 15, 2020·JAMA Internal Medicine·Jeremy Samuel Faust, Carlos Del Rio
May 19, 2020·JAMA : the Journal of the American Medical Association·Francis S Collins, Paul Stoffels
May 19, 2020·JAMA : the Journal of the American Medical Association·Sarah Schaffer DeRooLinda Y Fu
May 19, 2020·Environmental Research·Muhammad Khalid AnserKhalid Zaman

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Nov 20, 2020·Journal of Medical Internet Research·Lori Ann PostJames Francis Oehmke
Nov 21, 2020·Journal of Medical Internet Research·Lori Ann PostJames Francis Oehmke
Dec 11, 2020·Journal of Medical Internet Research·Lori PostJames Francis Oehmke
Jan 20, 2021·Journal of Medical Internet Research·Lori Ann PostJames Francis Oehmke
Jan 22, 2021·Journal of Medical Internet Research·Lori Ann PostJames Francis Oehmke
Mar 31, 2021·JMIR Public Health and Surveillance·Lori PostJames Francis Oehmke
Apr 15, 2021·JMIR Public Health and Surveillance·Lori PostJames Francis Oehmke
Apr 6, 2021·JMIR Public Health and Surveillance·Lori PostJames Francis Oehmke
Apr 15, 2021·JMIR Public Health and Surveillance·Lori PostJames F Oehmke
Dec 10, 2021·JMIR Public Health and Surveillance·Theresa B OehmkeJames F Oehmke

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

GitHub
COVID Tracking
Stata

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.