Dynamical evidence for causality between galactic cosmic rays and interannual variation in global temperature

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Anastasios A TsonisGeli Wang

Abstract

As early as 1959, it was hypothesized that an indirect link between solar activity and climate could be mediated by mechanisms controlling the flux of galactic cosmic rays (CR) [Ney ER (1959) Nature 183:451-452]. Although the connection between CR and climate remains controversial, a significant body of laboratory evidence has emerged at the European Organization for Nuclear Research [Duplissy J, et al. (2010) Atmos Chem Phys 10:1635-1647; Kirkby J, et al. (2011) Nature 476(7361):429-433] and elsewhere [Svensmark H, Pedersen JOP, Marsh ND, Enghoff MB, Uggerhøj UI (2007) Proc R Soc A 463:385-396; Enghoff MB, Pedersen JOP, Uggerhoj UI, Paling SM, Svensmark H (2011) Geophys Res Lett 38:L09805], demonstrating the theoretical mechanism of this link. In this article, we present an analysis based on convergent cross mapping, which uses observational time series data to directly examine the causal link between CR and year-to-year changes in global temperature. Despite a gross correlation, we find no measurable evidence of a causal effect linking CR to the overall 20th-century warming trend. However, on short interannual timescales, we find a significant, although modest, causal effect between CR and short-term, year-to-year variability...Continue Reading

References

Dec 2, 2000·Physical Review Letters·N D Marsh, H Svensmark
Mar 4, 2005·The Journal of Chemical Physics·Fangqun Yu
Nov 3, 2011·Chemical Reviews·Renyi ZhangWen Xu
Sep 22, 2012·Science·George SugiharaStephan Munch

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Citations

Aug 19, 2015·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Hao YeAnastasios A Tsonis
Aug 19, 2015·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Ming LuoYu Zhou
Nov 2, 2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Ethan R DeyleGeorge Sugihara
Dec 29, 2016·PloS One·Sarah Cobey, Edward B Baskerville
Mar 16, 2017·Ecology·John A McGowanGeorge Sugihara
Apr 26, 2020·Scientific Reports·Alfredo Giron-NavaGeorge Sugihara
May 28, 2020·Nature Communications·Siyang LengLuonan Chen
Aug 3, 2018·Chaos·Milan PalušMartina Chvosteková
May 4, 2017·Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz·Tim NiehuesFred Zepp
Sep 1, 2021·Bioinformatics·Jonathan TylerJaeKyoung Kim

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