Jun 9, 2016

Dynamics Affecting the Risk of Silent Circulation When Oral Polio Vaccination Is Stopped

BioRxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
James S KoopmanEdward L Ionides

Abstract

Silent circulation of polioviruses without poliomyelitis cases could threaten eradication when oral polio vaccine (OPV) use is stopped worldwide. Waning immunity promotes silent circulation by increasing poliovirus transmission from individuals not at risk of paralytic polio. There is limited data on temporal patterns of waning. Accordingly, we modeled a range of waning patterns, scaled from fast but shallow to slow but deep, while keeping constant the effect of waning on transmission dynamics before vaccination begins. Besides waning, we varied overall transmissibility, the delay from beginning vaccination to reaching specified infection levels, and type specific virus characteristics. We observed an increasing range of vaccination levels that resulted in long periods of silent circulation after eliminating paralytic polio cases as the delay in reaching final vaccination levels increased. The extent of silent circulation was higher when waning was slower and deeper, when transmissibility was higher, and when virus was type 3. In our model, modest levels of vaccination of adults reduce silent circulation risks. These modeled patterns are consistent with very long silent circulation mainly emerging as a threat to OPV cessation i...Continue Reading

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Mentioned in this Paper

Study
Patterns
Virus
Environment
Disease Eradication
Vaccination
Oral Poliovirus Vaccine
Disease Transmission
Blood Circulation
Human poliovirus

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