Dynamics of dengue disease with human and vector mobility

Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Murali Krishna Enduri, Shivakumar Jolad

Abstract

Dengue is a vector borne disease transmitted to humans by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes carrying virus of different serotypes. Dengue exhibits complex spatial and temporal dynamics, influenced by various biological, human and environmental factors. In this work, we study the dengue spread for a single serotype (DENV-1) including statistical models of human mobility with exponential step length distribution, by using reaction-diffusion equations and Stochastic Cellular Automata (SCA) approach. We analyze the spatial and temporal spreading of the disease using parameters from field studies. We choose mosquito density data from Ahmedabad city as a proxy for climate data in our SCA model. We find an interesting result that although human mobility makes the infection spread faster, there is an apparent early suppression of the epidemic compared to immobile humans. The disease extinction time is lesser when human mobility is included.

Citations

Aug 17, 2018·Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine·J C A Dias, L H A Monteiro
Sep 21, 2019·Journal of Infection and Public Health·Subhashisa SwainRicardo J Soares Magalhaes
Dec 18, 2020·Revista Da Sociedade Brasileira De Medicina Tropical·Ana Beatriz Souza MartinsCarlos Henrique Alencar

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