Early detection surveillance for an emerging plant pathogen: a rule of thumb to predict prevalence at first discovery

Proceedings. Biological Sciences
S ParnellF van den Bosch

Abstract

Emerging plant pathogens are a significant problem for conservation and food security. Surveillance is often instigated in an attempt to detect an invading epidemic before it gets out of control. Yet in practice many epidemics are not discovered until already at a high prevalence, partly due to a lack of quantitative understanding of how surveillance effort and the dynamics of an invading epidemic relate. We test a simple rule of thumb to determine, for a surveillance programme taking a fixed number of samples at regular intervals, the distribution of the prevalence an epidemic will have reached on first discovery (discovery-prevalence) and its expectation E(q*). We show that E(q*) = r/(N/Δ), i.e. simply the rate of epidemic growth divided by the rate of sampling; where r is the epidemic growth rate, N is the sample size and Δ is the time between sampling rounds. We demonstrate the robustness of this rule of thumb using spatio-temporal epidemic models as well as data from real epidemics. Our work supports the view that, for the purposes of early detection surveillance, simple models can provide useful insights in apparently complex systems. The insight can inform decisions on surveillance resource allocation in plant health and...Continue Reading

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Citations

Mar 24, 2016·Phytopathology·Walt Frith Mahaffee, Rob Stoll
Apr 12, 2017·The New Phytologist·Antonio Vicent, Jose Blasco
May 21, 2019·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Tim GottwaldFrank Louws
May 21, 2019·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Alexander J MastinStephen R Parnell
May 21, 2019·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Y BourhisF van den Bosch
Sep 22, 2017·The Open Ophthalmology Journal·Renato AmbrósioCynthia J Roberts
Jun 6, 2020·Phytopathology·Benjamin Watkinson-PowellNik J Cunniffe
Apr 4, 2017·The New Phytologist·Samuel R Hyatt-TwynamNik J Cunniffe
Aug 29, 2017·PLoS Computational Biology·Alexander J MastinStephen R Parnell
May 21, 2019·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Neil McRobertsTim Gottwald
Jun 24, 2017·Annual Review of Phytopathology·Stephen ParnellChristopher A Gilligan
Nov 27, 2020·Emerging Topics in Life Sciences·Frank H KochKrista Ryall
Dec 15, 2020·Emerging Topics in Life Sciences·Glyn Jones, Adam Kleczkowski
Jul 28, 2021·Plant Molecular Biology·Vasthi Alonso ChavezC Finn McQuaid

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