Early Prediction of the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis Using Radiologic and Clinical Scoring Systems With Classification Tree Analysis

AJR. American Journal of Roentgenology
Hye Won ChoiEun Sun Lee

Abstract

The objective of our study was to develop a decision tree model for the early prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) using clinical and radiologic scoring systems. For this retrospective study, 192 patients with AP who underwent CT 72 hours or less after symptom onset were divided into two cohorts: a training cohort (n = 115) and a validation cohort (n = 77). Univariate analysis was performed to identify significant parameters for the prediction of severe AP in the training cohort. For early prediction of disease severity, a classification tree analysis (CTA) model was constructed using significant scoring systems shown by univariate analysis. To assess the diagnostic performance of the model, we compared the area under the ROC curve (AUC) with each selected single parameter. We also evaluated the diagnostic performance in the validation cohort. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE)-II score, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score, extrapancreatic inflammation on CT (EPIC) score, and Balthazar grade were included in the CTA model. In the training cohort, our CTA model showed a trend of a higher AUC (0.853) than the AUC of each single parameter (APACHE-II score, 0.835;...Continue Reading

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Citations

Mar 22, 2020·Pancreatology : Official Journal of the International Association of Pancreatology (IAP) ... [et Al.]·Hideto YasudaToshihiko Mayumi

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