DOI: 10.1101/331447May 26, 2018Paper

Early projections of Ebola outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use in Équateur, Democratic Republic of Congo, as of May 21, 2018

BioRxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
J Daniel KellyG. Rutherford


As of May 21, 2018, 58 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We used reported case counts and time series from prior outbreaks to estimate outbreak size and duration using a stochastic branching process model with and without vaccine use and using a regression model. With the stochastic transmission model, we projected a median outbreak size of 206 EVD cases (95% credible interval: 109, 424), 265 cases (95% credible interval: 116.4, 683), and 849 cases (95% credible interval: 166, 3691.5) using high, low and zero estimates of vaccine coverage. With the regression model, we estimated a median size of 96.7 cases (95% prediction interval: 60, 265). This outbreak has the potential to be the largest outbreak in DRC since 2007. Vaccines are projected to substantially limit outbreak size and duration but are only part of prevention, control, and care strategies.

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