Effect of Providing the Uncertainty Information About a Tornado Occurrence on the Weather Recipients' Cognition and Protective Action: Probabilistic Hazard Information Versus Deterministic Warnings

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Seyed M MiranLans Rothfusz

Abstract

Currently, a binary alarm system is used in the United States to issue deterministic warning polygons in case of tornado events. To enhance the effectiveness of the weather information, a likelihood alarm system, which uses a tool called probabilistic hazard information (PHI), is being developed at National Severe Storms Laboratory to issue probabilistic information about the threat. This study aims to investigate the effects of providing the uncertainty information about a tornado occurrence through the PHI's graphical swath on laypeople's concern, fear, and protective action, as compared with providing the warning information with the deterministic polygon. The displays of color-coded swaths and deterministic polygons were shown to subjects. Some displays had a blue background denoting the probability of any tornado formation in the general area. Participants were asked to report their levels of concern, fear, and protective action at randomly chosen locations within each of seven designated levels on each display. Analysis of a three-stage nested design showed that providing the uncertainty information via the PHI would appropriately increase recipients' levels of concern, fear, and protective action in highly dangerous scen...Continue Reading

References

Feb 7, 1994·Quality in Health Care : QHC·R H HarwoodS Ebrahim
Jun 25, 2004·Journal of the American Dietetic Association·Robin L Pinkley
Jun 22, 2011·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Michael K Lindell, Ronald W Perry

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Citations

Oct 22, 2020·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Dominic Balog-WayJohn Besley

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