Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States.

Nature Communications
Bingyi YangDerek A T Cummings

Abstract

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (Reff) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventions that included school and leisure activities closure and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with a median Reff below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median Reff 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-1.39) or face masks (median Reff 0.97, 95% CI 0.58-1.39). While direct causal effects of interventions remain unclear, our results suggest that relaxation of some NPIs will need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others.

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Citations

Sep 11, 2021·PLoS Computational Biology·Nicolò GozziNicola Perra
Nov 25, 2021·Indoor Air·P Jacob Bueno de MesquitaBrett C Singer
Nov 1, 2021·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Bingyi YangGabriel M Leung

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Software Mentioned

GEE
R
R package mediation
geeglm
LASSO
geepack
IPOPT
tidycensus
inference
Pyomo

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