PMID: 9433063Jan 20, 1998Paper

Effect of variability in infection period on the persistence and spatial spread of infectious diseases

Mathematical Biosciences
Matt J Keeling, Bryan T Grenfell

Abstract

The effects of the mean infection (incubation plus infectious) period on the dynamics of infectious diseases are well understood. We examine the dynamics and persistence of epidemics when the distribution of the infection period also is modelled, using the well-documented childhood disease measles as a test case. We pay particular attention to the differences between exponentially distributed and constant periods. The use of constant periods increases the persistence of epidemics by reducing the individual stochasticity. The infection period distribution is also shown to have a significant effect on the spatial spread of disease.

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Citations

Mar 16, 2007·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Richard J Boys, Philip R Giles
Apr 24, 2013·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Lisa N MurilloAlan S Perelson
Oct 22, 2002·Mathematical Biosciences·James S KoopmanGeoffrey Jacquez
Aug 6, 2003·Mathematical Biosciences·Narges Bahi-Jaber, Dominique Pontier
Apr 15, 2009·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·M BaguelinJ L N Wood
Oct 2, 2009·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Andrew J K ConlanBryan T Grenfell
Aug 13, 2004·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·A W ParkB T Grenfell
Oct 12, 2004·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Hélène BroutinJean-François Guégan
Oct 4, 2006·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Dhruba Naug, Brian Smith
Apr 17, 2013·BMC Infectious Diseases·Andrea ApolloniVittoria Colizza
Jan 12, 2010·PloS One·Ellen Brooks-PollockMegan Murray
Sep 5, 2003·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Julia R GogBryan T Grenfell
Dec 17, 2009·Mathematical Biosciences·Frank BallPieter Trapman
Sep 22, 2009·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Alison J MarksAngela R McLean
May 15, 2015·Journal of Aquatic Animal Health·Mary R Arkoosh, Joseph P Dietrich
Feb 13, 2015·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Ramona Marguta, Andrea Parisi
Jan 27, 2007·AIDS·Megan CoffeeGeoff P Garnett
Feb 19, 2016·Scientific Reports·Giacomo PlazzottaCaroline Colijn
May 6, 2019·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Adam KleczkowskiPaul McMenemy
Jan 22, 2014·Reports on Progress in Physics·Kat RockMatt J Keeling
Mar 9, 2020·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Sang Woo Park, Benjamin M Bolker
Jun 10, 2016·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Kimberly M Thompson
Mar 5, 2021·PLoS Computational Biology·Simone SturnioloJasmina Panovska-Griffiths

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