Effects of climate change on water resources in the upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Heliyon
Vincent RothHans Hurni

Abstract

Drawing on hydrology, rainfall, and climatic data from the past 25 years, this article investigates the effects of climate change on water resources in the transnational Blue Nile Basin (BNB). The primary focus is on determining the long-term temporal and seasonal changes in the flows of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia at the border to Sudan. This is important because the Blue Nile is the main tributary to the Nile river, the lifeline of both Sudan and Egypt. Therefore, to begin with long-term trends in hydrological time series were detected by means of both parametric and nonparametric techniques. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was calibrated using several sub-basins and new high-resolution land use and soil maps. Future climate change impacts were projected using data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions based on three different climate change scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Projected time series were analysed for changes in rainfall and streamflow trends. Climate change scenario modelling suggested that the precipitation will increase from 7% to 48% and that streamflow from the BNB could increase by 21% to 97%. Th...Continue Reading

Citations

Nov 30, 2020·The Science of the Total Environment·A ArayaI A Ciampitti

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Software Mentioned

Soil and Water Assessment Tool ( SWAT )
Cup
ArcSWAT
CNRM
MRI
SWAT
CM
CGCM
ArcGIS
CCCMA

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