Abstract
Football (soccer) is one of the most popular sports in the world, including Europe. It is associated with important betting activities. A common belief, widely spread among those who participate in gambling activities, is that knowledge and expertise on football lead to better prediction skills for match outcomes. If unfounded, however, this belief should be considered as a form of "illusion of control." The aim of this study was to examine whether football experts are better than nonexperts at predicting football match scores. Two hundred and fifty-eight persons took part in the study: 21.3% as football experts, 54.3% as laypersons (non-initiated to football), and 24.4% as football amateurs. They predicted the scores of the first 10 matches of the 2008 UEFA European Football Championship. Logistic regressions were carried out to assess the link between the accuracy of the forecasted scores and the expertise of the participants (expert, amateur, layperson), controlling for age and gender. The variables assessed did not predict the accuracy of scoring prognosis (R2 ranged from 1% to 6%). Expertise, age, and gender did not appear to have an impact on the accuracy of the football match prognoses. Therefore, the belief that footbal...Continue Reading
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Apr 26, 2016·Journal of Addictive Diseases·Marie Grall-BronnecGaelle Bouju
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