Effects of internal border control on spread of pandemic influenza.

Emerging Infectious Diseases
James G WoodNiels G Beckert

Abstract

We investigated the capacity of internal border control to limit influenza spread in an emergent pandemic in the context of Australia, a country with a low-population density and geopolitical boundaries that may facilitate restrictions. Mathematical models were used to study the time delay between epidemics in 2 population centers when travel restrictions were imposed. The models demonstrated that population size, travel rates, and places where travelers reside can strongly influence delay. The model simulations suggested that moderate delays in geographic spread may be possible with stringent restrictions and a low reproduction number, but results will be sensitive to the reproduction number and timing of restrictions. Model limitations include the absence of further importations and additional control measures. Internal border control may have a role in protecting domestic centers early in a pandemic, when importations are sparse. Our results may be useful for policymakers.

References

Mar 5, 2003·International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents·Hussein A Gezairy
Nov 19, 2003·European Journal of Epidemiology·Rebecca F GraisGregory E Glass
Apr 9, 2004·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Christophe FraserNeil M Ferguson
Dec 17, 2004·Nature·Christina E MillsMarc Lipsitch
Aug 5, 2005·Science·Ira M LonginiM Elizabeth Halloran
Aug 5, 2005·Nature·Neil M FergusonDonald S Burke
Oct 19, 2005·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Raymond GaniSteve Leach
Apr 28, 2006·PLoS Medicine·Ben S CooperNigel J Gay
Apr 28, 2006·Nature·Neil M FergusonDonald S Burke
May 6, 2006·Nature Medicine·T Déirdre HollingsworthRoy M Anderson
Mar 1, 2007·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Howard MarkelCleto DiGiovanni

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

May 3, 2013·PloS One·Anna MummertXiu-Feng Wan
Jan 2, 2015·Bulletin of the World Health Organization·Ana L P MateusJonathan S Nguyen-Van-Tam
Mar 8, 2019·PLoS Computational Biology·Solveig EngebretsenBirgitte Freiesleben de Blasio

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

MATLAB
Statistics Toolbox

Related Concepts

Related Feeds

Absence Epilepsy

Absence epilepsy is a common seizure disorder in children which can produce chronic psychosocial sequelae. Discover the latest research on absence epilepsies here.