Effects of recent energy system changes on CO2 projections for the United States

Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy
Carol S Lenox, Daniel H Loughlin

Abstract

Recent projections of future United States carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are considerably lower than projections made just a decade ago. A myriad of factors have contributed to lower forecasts, including reductions in end-use energy service demands, improvements in energy efficiency, and technological innovations. Policies that have encouraged these changes include renewable portfolio standards, corporate vehicle efficiency standards, smart growth initiatives, revisions to building codes, and air and climate regulations. Understanding the effects of these and other factors can be advantageous as society evaluates opportunities for achieving additional CO2 reductions. Energy system models provide a means to develop such insights. In this analysis, the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) model was applied to estimate the relative effects of various energy system changes that have happened since the year 2005 on CO2 projections for the year 2025. The results indicate that transformations in the transportation and buildings sectors have played major roles in lowering projections. Particularly influential changes include improved vehicle efficiencies, reductions in projected travel demand, reductions in miscellaneous commercial electricity ...Continue Reading

References

Mar 8, 2013·Environmental Science & Technology·Kristen E BrownJana B Milford
Mar 25, 2015·Environmental Science & Technology·Jason RudokasArmistead G Russell
Oct 21, 2015·Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association·Julia GamasCynthia Gage

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