Efficient or Fair? Operationalizing Ethical Principles in Flood Risk Management: A Case Study on the Dutch-German Rhine

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Alessio CiulloFrans Klijn

Abstract

Flood risk management decisions in many countries are based on decision-support frameworks which rely on cost-benefit analyses. Such frameworks are seldom informative about the geographical distribution of risk, raising questions on the fairness of the proposed policies. In the present work, we propose a new decision criterion that accounts for the distribution of risk reduction and apply it to support flood risk management decisions on a transboundary stretch of the Rhine River. Three types of interventions are considered: embankment heightening, making Room for the River, and changing the discharge distribution of the river branches. The analysis involves solving a flood risk management problem according to four alternative formulations, based on different ethical principles. Formulations based on cost optimization lead to very poor performances in some areas for the sake of reducing the overall aggregated costs. Formulations that also include equity criteria have different results depending on how these are defined. When risk reduction is distributed equally, very poor economic performance is achieved. When risk is distributed equally, results are in line with formulations based on cost optimization, while a fairer risk dist...Continue Reading

References

Oct 5, 2010·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Sebastiaan N JonkmanBob Maaskant
Jul 10, 2013·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Michelle WoodwardBen Gouldby
Dec 18, 2014·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Neelke Doorn
Jan 8, 2015·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·R B Jongejan, B Maaskant
Mar 2, 2017·JBJS Reviews·John A BuzaJonathan Vigdorchik

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Citations

Oct 12, 2020·The Science of the Total Environment·Neelke Doorn

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Software Mentioned

cCBA
Exploratory Modelling and Analysis Workbench ( EMA ‐ Workbench )
Prioritarian
MOEAs
VNK
MOEA

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