Eigenvalues of the covariance matrix as early warning signals for critical transitions in ecological systems

Scientific Reports
Shiyang ChenBogdan I Epureanu

Abstract

Many ecological systems are subject critical transitions, which are abrupt changes to contrasting states triggered by small changes in some key component of the system. Temporal early warning signals such as the variance of a time series, and spatial early warning signals such as the spatial correlation in a snapshot of the system's state, have been proposed to forecast critical transitions. However, temporal early warning signals do not take the spatial pattern into account, and past spatial indicators only examine one snapshot at a time. In this study, we propose the use of eigenvalues of the covariance matrix of multiple time series as early warning signals. We first show theoretically why these indicators may increase as the system moves closer to the critical transition. Then, we apply the method to simulated data from several spatial ecological models to demonstrate the method's applicability. This method has the advantage that it takes into account only the fluctuations of the system about its equilibrium, thus eliminating the effects of any change in equilibrium values. The eigenvector associated with the largest eigenvalue of the covariance matrix is helpful for identifying the regions that are most vulnerable to the c...Continue Reading

References

Nov 1, 1995·Physical Review. E, Statistical Physics, Plasmas, Fluids, and Related Interdisciplinary Topics·L Gammaitoni
Apr 17, 2001·Science·D TilmanD Swackhamer
Oct 12, 2001·Nature·M SchefferB Walker
Sep 28, 2004·Science·Max RietkerkJohan van de Koppel
Sep 6, 2005·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Chulan KwonDavid J Thouless
May 2, 2006·Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology·Juliane Schäfer, Korbinian Strimmer
May 5, 2007·The American Naturalist·Egbert H van Nes, Marten Scheffer
Aug 19, 2008·The American Naturalist·T H KeittR D Holt
Jan 14, 2009·Nature Reviews. Genetics·Darren J Wilkinson
Sep 4, 2009·Nature·Marten SchefferGeorge Sugihara
Sep 10, 2010·Nature·John M Drake, Blaine D Griffen
Aug 1, 1997·Trends in Ecology & Evolution·J van de KoppelF J Weissing
Mar 17, 2011·Physical Review. E, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics·Joosup Lim, Bogdan I Epureanu
May 21, 2011·The American Naturalist·Vasilis DakosMarten Scheffer
Dec 27, 2011·Nature·Annelies J VeraartMarten Scheffer
Nov 29, 2013·Scientific Reports·Tiziano SquartiniDiego Garlaschelli
Jun 29, 2018·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Eamon B O'DeaJohn M Drake
Jan 1, 2013·Theoretical Ecology·Suzanne M O'Regan, John M Drake

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Nov 11, 2019·Ecology Letters·J Jelle LeverMarten Scheffer
Mar 20, 2021·Physical Review. E·Subhendu BhandaryPartha Sharathi Dutta
Apr 30, 2021·Scientific Reports·Els WeinansIngrid A van de Leemput
Dec 17, 2021·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Andrea AparicioMarco Tulio Angulo

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

R package corpcor

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.