Energy efficiency to reduce residential electricity and natural gas use under climate change

Nature Communications
Janet L Reyna, Mikhail V Chester

Abstract

Climate change could significantly affect consumer demand for energy in buildings, as changing temperatures may alter heating and cooling loads. Warming climates could also lead to the increased adoption and use of cooling technologies in buildings. We assess residential electricity and natural gas demand in Los Angeles, California under multiple climate change projections and investigate the potential for energy efficiency to offset increased demand. We calibrate residential energy use against metered data, accounting for differences in building materials and appliances. Under temperature increases, we find that without policy intervention, residential electricity demand could increase by as much as 41-87% between 2020 and 2060. However, aggressive policies aimed at upgrading heating/cooling systems and appliances could result in electricity use increases as low as 28%, potentially avoiding the installation of new generation capacity. We therefore recommend aggressive energy efficiency, in combination with low-carbon generation sources, to offset projected increases in residential energy demand.

References

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Aug 23, 2011·International Journal of Cancer Prevention·Latha P PalaniappanElsie J Wang
Jan 25, 2013·Nature·Kenneth GillinghamGernot Wagner
Apr 29, 2015·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Lucas W Davis, Paul J Gertler

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Citations

Jun 27, 2019·Nature Communications·Bas J van RuijvenIan Sue Wing
Apr 5, 2020·Nature Communications·Debora Maia-SilvaRoshanak Nateghi
Dec 31, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Yuanzheng LiGuosong Zhao
Apr 25, 2020·The Science of the Total Environment·Holly SamuelsonTushar Narula
Jun 23, 2021·ACS Applied Materials & Interfaces·Gerald E Decker, Eric D Bloch
Jun 27, 2018·Environmental Science & Technology·Hanna M BreunigCorinne D Scown
Aug 22, 2021·Science Advances·Kenneth T GillinghamDrew R Gentner

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Software Mentioned

SQLite
EnergyPlus Weather
Building Energy Optimization ( BEopt )
Python
EnergyPlus
BEopt
IMAGE
RASS

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