Ensemble Prediction of a Halo Coronal Mass Ejection Using Heliospheric Imagers

Space Weather : the International Journal of Research & Applications
T AmerstorferP-A Bourdin

Abstract

The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) and its heliospheric imagers (HIs) have provided us the possibility to enhance our understanding of the interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). HI-based methods are able to forecast arrival times and speeds at any target and use the advantage of tracing a CME's path of propagation up to 1 AU and beyond. In our study, we use the ELEvoHI model for CME arrival prediction together with an ensemble approach to derive uncertainties in the modeled arrival time and impact speed. The CME from 3 November 2010 is analyzed by performing 339 model runs that are compared to in situ measurements from lined-up spacecraft MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging and STEREO-B. Remote data from STEREO-B showed the CME as halo event, which is comparable to an HI observer situated at L1 and observing an Earth-directed CME. A promising and easy approach is found by using the frequency distributions of four ELEvoHI output parameters, drag parameter, background solar wind speed, initial distance, and speed. In this case study, the most frequent values of these outputs lead to the predictions with the smallest errors. Restricting the ensemble to those runs, w...Continue Reading

References

May 31, 1996·Science·J W HarveyE Yasukawa
May 27, 2015·Nature Communications·Christian MöstlBojan Vršnak
Jul 12, 2016·Space Weather : the International Journal of Research & Applications·C E DeForestJ A Davies
Oct 7, 2017·Space Weather : the International Journal of Research & Applications·C MöstlT L Zhang

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Software Mentioned

LASCO
WSA
QuickReduce
Ellipse Evolution
ElEvo
ELEvoHI
ENLIL
Spitzer
ELCon
SECCHI

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