Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate.

Nature
David C FrankFortunat Joos

Abstract

The processes controlling the carbon flux and carbon storage of the atmosphere, ocean and terrestrial biosphere are temperature sensitive and are likely to provide a positive feedback leading to amplified anthropogenic warming. Owing to this feedback, at timescales ranging from interannual to the 20-100-kyr cycles of Earth's orbital variations, warming of the climate system causes a net release of CO(2) into the atmosphere; this in turn amplifies warming. But the magnitude of the climate sensitivity of the global carbon cycle (termed gamma), and thus of its positive feedback strength, is under debate, giving rise to large uncertainties in global warming projections. Here we quantify the median gamma as 7.7 p.p.m.v. CO(2) per degrees C warming, with a likely range of 1.7-21.4 p.p.m.v. CO(2) per degrees C. Sensitivity experiments exclude significant influence of pre-industrial land-use change on these estimates. Our results, based on the coupling of a probabilistic approach with an ensemble of proxy-based temperature reconstructions and pre-industrial CO(2) data from three ice cores, provide robust constraints for gamma on the policy-relevant multi-decadal to centennial timescales. By using an ensemble of >200,000 members, quanti...Continue Reading

References

Oct 2, 2004·Science·Hans von StorchSimon F B Tett
Jan 19, 2008·Nature·Martin Heimann, Markus Reichstein
Feb 7, 2008·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni
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Citations

Jun 19, 2013·Oecologia·Gregory M KingDavid C Frank
Jul 25, 2012·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Ting WeiWenjie Dong
Jan 16, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Ulf BüntgenJosef Kyncl
Dec 1, 2010·Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·Richard A BettsMichael G Sanderson
Jul 7, 2010·Science·Miguel D MahechaAndrew D Richardson
Dec 22, 2015·Scientific Reports·Johannes A SchultzAndreas Philipp
Oct 7, 2015·Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·Pierre Friedlingstein
Jan 30, 2010·Nature·Hugues Goosse
Mar 7, 2019·The New Phytologist·John E DrakeElise Pendall
Aug 26, 2016·Nature·Nerilie J AbramUNKNOWN PAGES 2k Consortium
Aug 15, 2014·Oecologia·Flurin BabstValerie Trouet
Aug 27, 2014·Global Change Biology·Matthias SaurerGiles H F Young
May 19, 2020·Global Change Biology·William MarchandYves Bergeron
Apr 25, 2017·Jàmbá : Journal of Disaster Risk Studies·Tambudzai Mupakati, Vincent I Tanyanyiwa
Nov 30, 2016·Journal of Environmental Quality·Jongsung Kim, Sabine Grunwald
Jun 14, 2013·Environmental Microbiology Reports·Guang Cheng LiuShu-Ichi Sugiyama
Apr 25, 2019·Nature Communications·Veerle VandeginsteArne Vandeginste
May 17, 2018·Scientific Reports·Raphael NeukomGabriele C Hegerl
Jul 1, 2016·Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Climate Change·Christoph C RaibleMartin Wegmann
Nov 24, 2020·The Science of the Total Environment·Michał Woszczyk, Carsten J Schubert
May 21, 2021·Nature Communications·Xuanze ZhangYongqiang Zhang
Jun 9, 2021·Nature Communications·Ulf BüntgenJan Esper

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