Environmental limits of Rift Valley fever revealed using ecoepidemiological mechanistic models

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Gianni Lo IaconoJames L N Wood

Abstract

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) of humans and domestic animals are a significant component of the global burden of disease and a key driver of poverty. The transmission cycles of VBDs are often strongly mediated by the ecological requirements of the vectors, resulting in complex transmission dynamics, including intermittent epidemics and an unclear link between environmental conditions and disease persistence. An important broader concern is the extent to which theoretical models are reliable at forecasting VBDs; infection dynamics can be complex, and the resulting systems are highly unstable. Here, we examine these problems in detail using a case study of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a high-burden disease endemic to Africa. We develop an ecoepidemiological, compartmental, mathematical model coupled to the dynamics of ambient temperature and water availability and apply it to a realistic setting using empirical environmental data from Kenya. Importantly, we identify the range of seasonally varying ambient temperatures and water-body availability that leads to either the extinction of mosquito populations and/or RVF (nonpersistent regimens) or the establishment of long-term mosquito populations and consequently, the endemicity of the R...Continue Reading

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Citations

May 21, 2019·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Olumayowa KajeroGiovanni Lo Iacono
Nov 7, 2019·Viruses·Alexander T Ciota, Alexander C Keyel
Sep 16, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Raphaëlle MétrasMarion Subiros
Nov 15, 2020·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Rory GibbKate E Jones
May 11, 2021·Trends in Ecology & Evolution·Vanessa O EzenwaAmanda M Koltz

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