PMID: 8589538Jan 1, 1996Paper

Environmentally driven epizootics

Mathematical Biosciences
L J Allen, P J Cormier

Abstract

Environmental conditions can be the driving force behind an epizootic. Environmental changes may favor growth of a particular species, which results in increased contact rates and spread of a disease. We examine this particular phenomenon in SI and SIS models and use it to explain the possible disease outbreaks in nature. Either infected individuals recover from the disease (SIS model) or suffer disease fatalities (SI model). Epizootic models for a single population are examined where contact rate depends on population size. A reproductive number R is defined that depends on environmental carrying capacity. The single-population models are coupled to form three different two-species models with intra- and interspecies contact rates that depend on the population sizes of both populations. The stability results show that it is possible for the disease to drive one of the populations to extinction, the one with disease fatalities. The surviving species serves as a reservoir for the disease. Single- and two-species epizootic models are examined in a particular case where the contact rates are assumed to be constant. This leads to a new definition for the contact rate. A complete global analysis is possible in these latter cases. Th...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jun 24, 2006·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Linda J S AllenColleen B Jonsson
May 17, 2005·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Isthrinayagy KrishnarajahGavin Gibson
Oct 30, 2003·Mathematical Biosciences·Linda J S AllenCarleton J Phillips
Feb 1, 2000·Mathematical Biosciences·L J Allen, A M Burgin
Jan 1, 2007·Journal of Biological Dynamics·Robert K McCormack, Linda J S Allen
Jan 15, 2003·Clinical Microbiology Reviews·Christopher D Paddock, James E Childs
Feb 16, 2007·Mathematical Biosciences·Isthrinayagy KrishnarajahGavin Gibson
May 29, 2012·Natural Resource Modeling·L J S AllenP van den Driessche

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