Equation-free mechanistic ecosystem forecasting using empirical dynamic modeling

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Hao YeGeorge Sugihara

Abstract

It is well known that current equilibrium-based models fall short as predictive descriptions of natural ecosystems, and particularly of fisheries systems that exhibit nonlinear dynamics. For example, model parameters assumed to be fixed constants may actually vary in time, models may fit well to existing data but lack out-of-sample predictive skill, and key driving variables may be misidentified due to transient (mirage) correlations that are common in nonlinear systems. With these frailties, it is somewhat surprising that static equilibrium models continue to be widely used. Here, we examine empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) as an alternative to imposed model equations and that accommodates both nonequilibrium dynamics and nonlinearity. Using time series from nine stocks of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) from the Fraser River system in British Columbia, Canada, we perform, for the the first time to our knowledge, real-data comparison of contemporary fisheries models with equivalent EDM formulations that explicitly use spawning stock and environmental variables to forecast recruitment. We find that EDM models produce more accurate and precise forecasts, and unlike extensions of the classic Ricker spawner-recruit equation, t...Continue Reading

References

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Jan 4, 2008·The American Naturalist·Chih-hao HsiehGeorge Sugihara
Apr 13, 2011·PloS One·Ethan R Deyle, George Sugihara
Sep 22, 2012·Science·George SugiharaStephan Munch
Feb 27, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Charles T PerrettiGeorge Sugihara
Mar 29, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Ethan R DeyleGeorge Sugihara

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Citations

Jan 15, 2016·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Ethan R DeyleGeorge Sugihara
Apr 2, 2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Steven L BruntonJ Nathan Kutz
May 12, 2015·Ecology Letters·Owen L PetcheyIan S Pearse
Sep 4, 2015·BMC Bioinformatics·Yongguo MeiJosep Bassaganya-Riera
Apr 2, 2015·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Donald L DeAngelis, Simeon Yurek
Nov 2, 2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Ethan R DeyleGeorge Sugihara
Dec 29, 2016·PloS One·Sarah Cobey, Edward B Baskerville
Mar 16, 2017·Ecology·John A McGowanGeorge Sugihara
Apr 7, 2018·Global Change Biology·Patricia MiloslavichYunne-Jai Shin
Nov 6, 2018·PLoS Computational Biology·Keisuke FujiiYoshinobu Kawahara
Oct 6, 2015·Scientific Reports·Hao YeGeorge Sugihara
May 1, 2019·Nature Ecology & Evolution·Simone Cenci, Serguei Saavedra
Oct 17, 2019·BioEssays : News and Reviews in Molecular, Cellular and Developmental Biology·Yize ChenYang-Yu Liu
Dec 11, 2019·Nature Ecology & Evolution·T J Clark, Angela D Luis
Feb 18, 2020·Science Advances·Roger GuimeràMarta Sales-Pardo
Apr 19, 2017·Physical Review. E·James P L Tan
Aug 23, 2017·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Satohiro TajimaTaro Toyoizumi
Dec 20, 2019·Nature Ecology & Evolution·Vasilis Dakos
Jan 1, 2020·Scientific Reports·Irena V TeleshSergei O Skarlato
Jul 15, 2016·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Mary E HunsickerAlisan Amrhein
Mar 3, 2017·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Vasilis DakosGeorge Sugihara
Feb 2, 2017·Ecology Letters·Benjamin BlonderJens-Christian Svenning
Jun 1, 2017·Nature Communications·Steven L BruntonJ Nathan Kutz
Apr 26, 2020·Scientific Reports·Alfredo Giron-NavaGeorge Sugihara
May 17, 2017·Science Advances·Samuel H RudyJ Nathan Kutz
Jul 1, 2020·PLoS Computational Biology·Samuel R Bray, Bo Wang
Feb 17, 2018·Physical Review. E·Simone Cenci, Serguei Saavedra
Nov 22, 2020·The Journal of Chemical Physics·Maximilian Topel, Andrew L Ferguson
Jan 17, 2021·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Wei-Hung SuDongbin Xiu
Mar 6, 2021·IScience·Davi Röhe RodriguesIllia Horenko
Jun 18, 2021·Science Advances·Daniel FernexRichard Semaan
Nov 15, 2018·The Journal of Physical Chemistry. B·Jiang Wang, Andrew L Ferguson

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