Essential information: Uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Shou-Li LiKatriona Shea

Abstract

Early resolution of uncertainty during an epidemic outbreak can lead to rapid and efficient decision making, provided that the uncertainty affects prioritization of actions. The wide range in caseload projections for the 2014 Ebola outbreak caused great concern and debate about the utility of models. By coding and running 37 published Ebola models with five candidate interventions, we found that, despite this large variation in caseload projection, the ranking of management options was relatively consistent. Reducing funeral transmission and reducing community transmission were generally ranked as the two best options. Value of information (VoI) analyses show that caseloads could be reduced by 11% by resolving all model-specific uncertainties, with information about model structure accounting for 82% of this reduction and uncertainty about caseload only accounting for 12%. Our study shows that the uncertainty that is of most interest epidemiologically may not be the same as the uncertainty that is most relevant for management. If the goal is to improve management outcomes, then the focus of study should be to identify and resolve those uncertainties that most hinder the choice of an optimal intervention. Our study further shows...Continue Reading

References

Oct 12, 2005·Mathematical Biosciences·Matthew J FerrariAndrew P Dobson
Sep 27, 2006·Epidemiology and Infection·J LegrandA Flahault
Aug 10, 2011·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Petra KlepacBryan T Grenfell
Oct 18, 2014·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·F O FasinaG Chowell
Nov 7, 2014·Nature·Declan Butler
Nov 22, 2014·Science·Abhishek PandeyAlison P Galvani
Nov 28, 2014·Nature·Sebastian FunkVincent A A Jansen
Nov 28, 2014·Nature·Caitlin Rivers
Dec 7, 2014·Epidemics·A CamachoW J Edmunds
Feb 3, 2015·PLoS Currents·Marcelo F C GomesAlessandro Vespignani
Feb 20, 2015·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Adam J KucharskiW John Edmunds
Mar 5, 2015·Scientific Reports·Joshua S Weitz, Jonathan Dushoff
Mar 5, 2015·Infectious Diseases of Poverty·Adnan KhanMudassar Imran
Mar 10, 2015·The Lancet Infectious Diseases·Diego ChowellKaren S Anderson
May 1, 2015·PLoS Computational Biology·Tom LindströmColleen Webb
Jul 22, 2015·Emerging Infectious Diseases·John M DrakeIsaac Chun-Hai Fung
Oct 2, 2015·Science Translational Medicine·Mark E J WoolhousePaul Kellam
Dec 10, 2015·ELife·Jean-Paul ChretienDylan B George
Jun 9, 2016·Epidemics·William J M ProbertMatthew J Ferrari

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Jul 25, 2018·PLoS Computational Biology·William J M ProbertMichael J Tildesley
Feb 17, 2018·PLoS Computational Biology·Robin N ThompsonNik J Cunniffe
Aug 14, 2019·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Kezia R ManlovePaul C Cross
Jun 6, 2020·Nature Methods·Ottar N BjørnstadNaomi Altman
May 10, 2020·Science·Katriona SheaMatthew Ferrari
Jan 22, 2021·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Loïc BergerRichard D Smith
Apr 20, 2021·Journal of Process Control·Arman RajaeiMojtaba Sharifi
Sep 12, 2021·Nature Communications·Rachel J OidtmanT Alex Perkins
Oct 4, 2021·BMC Public Health·Julie C BlackwoodKatriona Shea

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.

Related Papers

Journal of Clinical Virology : the Official Publication of the Pan American Society for Clinical Virology
Ingrid Labouba, Eric M Leroy
Iranian Journal of Public Health
Raja DanasekaranGeetha Mani
© 2022 Meta ULC. All rights reserved