[Estimated Effect of COVID-19 Lockdown on Skin Tumor Size and Survival: An Exponential Growth Model].

Actas dermo-sifiliográficas
A Tejera-VaquerizoE Nagore

Abstract

Spain is in a situation of indefinite lockdown due to the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. One of the consequences of this lockdown is delays in medical and surgical procedures for common diseases. The aim of this study was to model the impact on survival of tumor growth caused by such delays in patients with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and melanoma. Multicenter, retrospective, observational cohort study. We constructed an exponential growth model for both SCC and melanoma to estimate tumor growth between patient-reported onset and surgical excision at different time points. Data from 200 patients with SCC of the head and neck and 1000 patients with cutaneous melanoma were included. An exponential growth curve was calculated for each tumor type and we estimated tumor size after 1, 2, and 3 months of potential surgical delay. The proportion of patients with T3 SCC (diameter >4cm or thickness >6 mm) increased from 41.5% (83 patients) in the initial study group to an estimated 58.5%, 70.5%, and 72% after 1, 2, and 3 months of delay. Disease-specific survival at 2, 5, and 10 years in patients whose surgery was delayed by 3 months decreased by 6.2%, 8.2%, and 5.2%, respectively. The proportion of patients with...Continue Reading

Citations

Sep 10, 2020·Actas dermo-sifiliográficas·S Porcar SauraA García Vázquez
Jan 19, 2021·Revista española de patología : publicación oficial de la Sociedad Española de Anatomía Patológica y de la Sociedad Española de Citología·Antonio Tejera-VaquerizoJosé Luis Rodríguez-Peralto
Feb 24, 2021·Medicina clínica·María Inés Fernández CanedoFrancisco Rivas Ruíz
Mar 10, 2021·Medicina Clínica·María Inés Fernández CanedoFrancisco Rivas Ruíz
May 21, 2021·Actas dermo-sifiliográficas·S Porcar SauraA García Vázquez
May 31, 2021·Actas dermo-sifiliográficas·J Sarriugarte Aldecoa-OtaloraJ I Yanguas Bayona
Oct 6, 2021·Clinical and Experimental Dermatology·A Conde-TaboadaE López-Bran
Nov 18, 2021·Actas dermo-sifiliográficas·J Sarriugarte Aldecoa-OtaloraJ I Yanguas Bayona

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