Estimated future HIV prevalence, incidence, and potential infections averted in the United States: a multiple scenario analysis

Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes : JAIDS
H Irene HallJonathan H Mermin

Abstract

To estimate the potential future burden of HIV in the United States under different intervention scenarios. We modeled future HIV incidence, prevalence, and infections averted using 2006 estimates of HIV incidence (55,400 new infections per year), prevalence (1,107,000 persons living with HIV), and transmission rate (5.0 per 100 persons living with HIV). We modeled 10-year trends for 3 base-case scenarios (steady incidence, steady transmission rate, declining transmission rate based on the 2000-2006 trend) and 2 intensified HIV intervention scenarios (50% reduction in transmission rate within 10 and 5 years). Base-case scenarios predicted HIV prevalence increases of 24%-38% in 10 years. Reducing the transmission rate by 50% within 10 years reduces incidence by 40%; prevalence increases 20% to an estimated 1,329,000 persons living with HIV. Halving the transmission rate within 5 years reduces incidence by 46%; prevalence increases 13%, to 1,247,000. Although in year 10 incidence is similar regardless of the intervention time frame, more infections are averted when halving the transmission rate within 5 years. HIV prevalence will likely increase creating additional demands for health care services. These analyses are instructive ...Continue Reading

References

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Citations

Mar 26, 2011·AIDS and Behavior·Brian W BeckerCharles H Hinkin
Jan 7, 2011·PloS One·Sundhiya MandaliaUNKNOWN NPMS-HHC Steering Group
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Sep 20, 2011·AIDS and Behavior·Steven D Pinkerton
Apr 12, 2012·AIDS and Behavior·David R HoltgraveH Irene Hall
Jan 10, 2016·Journal of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities·Qiang XiaLucia V Torian
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Oct 30, 2015·Viruses·Sikhulile MoyoTulio de Oliveira
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Mar 8, 2021·Infection, Genetics and Evolution : Journal of Molecular Epidemiology and Evolutionary Genetics in Infectious Diseases·Evangelia Georgia KostakiDimitrios Paraskevis

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