Estimated Use of Intensive Care Beds Due to COVID-19 in Germany Over Time

Deutsches Ärzteblatt International
Andreas StangKarl-Heinz Jöckel

Abstract

There is concern in Germany that the capacity of intensive care unit (ICU) beds may not be sufficient for the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim was to determine the maximum daily number of COVID-19 cases requiring intensive care from 11 April through 30 June 2020. We assumed three non-exponential scenarios for the development of the cumulative case numbers up to 30 June 2020 (linear, slow quadratic, and fast quadratic). We assumed that 3-10% of of patients would require intensive care, that 8 days would elapse from a positive test to the need for intensive care, and that intensive care would be necessary for 14 or 20 days. Extrapolation of the maximum registered daily COVID-19 cases reveals a range of 4133 to 12 233 cases. Assuming that 3-10% of newly detected COVID-19 cases become intensive care patients and the average length of ICU stay is between 14 and 20 days, we arrive at a maximum daily number of ICU cases between 1989 (linear extrapolation, 3% ICU, 14 days in ICU) and 20 966 (fast quadratic extrapolation, 10% ICU, 20 days in ICU). Our results give no rise for concern that triage of COVID-19 patients may become necessary in Germany. However, the occupancy of ICU beds should be managed centrally to ensure optimal use of bed cap...Continue Reading

References

Mar 18, 2020·Lancet·Andrea Remuzzi, Giuseppe Remuzzi
Mar 28, 2020·MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report·UNKNOWN CDC COVID-19 Response Team
Jun 9, 2020·MedRxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences·Ruiyun LiJeffrey Shaman

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Nov 16, 2021·European Journal of Trauma and Emergency Surgery : Official Publication of the European Trauma Society·Uwe HamsenUNKNOWN Trauma Section of the German Interdisciplinary Association of Critical Care, Emergency Medicine (DIVI)

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.