Estimates of case-fatality ratios of measles in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and modelling analysis

The Lancet Global Health
Allison PortnoyStéphane Verguet

Abstract

In the 21st century, increases in immunisation coverage and decreases in under-5 mortality have substantially reduced the global burden of measles mortality. However, the assessment of measles mortality burden is highly dependent on estimates of case-fatality ratios for measles, which can vary according to geography, health systems infrastructure, prevalence of underlying risk factors, and measles endemicity. With imprecise case-fatality ratios, there is continued uncertainty about the burden of measles mortality and the effect of measles vaccination. In this study, we aimed to update the estimations of case-fatality ratios for measles, to develop a prediction model to estimate case-fatality ratios across heterogeneous groupings, and to project future case-fatality ratios for measles up to 2030. We did a review of the literature to identify studies examining measles cases and deaths in low-income and middle-income countries in all age groups from 1980 to 2016. We extracted data on case-fatality ratios for measles overall and by age, where possible. We developed and examined several types of generalised linear models and determined the best-fit model according to the Akaike information criterion. We then selected a best-fit mode...Continue Reading

Citations

Mar 21, 2019·International Endodontic Journal·V NagendrababuP M H Dummer
Feb 28, 2020·The Journal of Infectious Diseases·Lien Anh Ha DoKim Mulholland
May 14, 2020·Viruses·Darren Z L Mok, Kuan Rong Chan
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Aug 12, 2020·BMC Public Health·Basant Kumar PandaNiyi Awofeso
Aug 9, 2020·Value in Health : the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research·Allison PortnoyStéphane Verguet
Feb 20, 2021·The Lancet Global Health·Etienne GignouxYap Boum
Jul 13, 2021·The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal·Andrea Lo VecchioAlfredo Guarino
Aug 18, 2021·BMC Infectious Diseases·Joseph L ServadioMatteo Convertino
Nov 11, 2021·MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report·Meredith G DixonNatasha S Crowcroft

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