Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Richard BischofJonas Kindberg

Abstract

The ongoing recovery of terrestrial large carnivores in North America and Europe is accompanied by intense controversy. On the one hand, reestablishment of large carnivores entails a recovery of their most important ecological role, predation. On the other hand, societies are struggling to relearn how to live with apex predators that kill livestock, compete for game species, and occasionally injure or kill people. Those responsible for managing these species and mitigating conflict often lack fundamental information due to a long-standing challenge in ecology: How do we draw robust population-level inferences for elusive animals spread over immense areas? Here we showcase the application of an effective tool for spatially explicit tracking and forecasting of wildlife population dynamics at scales that are relevant to management and conservation. We analyzed the world's largest dataset on carnivores comprising more than 35,000 noninvasively obtained DNA samples from over 6,000 individual brown bears (Ursus arctos), gray wolves (Canis lupus), and wolverines (Gulo gulo). Our analyses took into account that not all individuals are detected and, even if detected, their fates are not always known. We show unequivocal quantitative evi...Continue Reading

References

Nov 4, 2006·Science·Martin Enserink, Gretchen Vogel
Feb 18, 2009·The Journal of Animal Ecology·Richard BischofOlivier Gimenez
Jan 11, 2014·Science·William J RippleAaron J Wirsing
Dec 20, 2014·Science·Guillaume ChapronLuigi Boitani
Jan 24, 2015·Science·James J GilroyRichard Bischof
Dec 19, 2015·Science·Scott CreelPaul Schuette
Dec 13, 2017·Nature Ecology & Evolution·Richard BischofJon E Swenson
Nov 7, 2018·Ecology and Evolution·Beth GardnerK Ullas Karanth
Jan 27, 2019·Ecology and Evolution·Cyril MilleretRichard Bischof
Jul 8, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Clayton T LambStan Boutin
Jul 16, 2020·Trends in Ecology & Evolution·Jiajia LiuLuke Gibson

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Citations

Mar 5, 2021·The Journal of Animal Ecology·Cecilia Di BernardiArild Landa
Jun 30, 2021·Biology Letters·Cyril MilleretJenny Mattisson
Sep 23, 2021·Scientific Reports·Sylvain GiroudStéphane Blanc

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Software Mentioned

R
R package
nimbleSCR
OPSCR
NIMBLE
Numerical Inference for Statistical Models Using Bayesian and ...

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