Estimating and projecting the number of new HIV diagnoses and incidence in Spectrum's case surveillance and vital registration tool

AIDS
Severin G MahianeJeffrey W Eaton

Abstract

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS-supported Spectrum software package is used by most countries worldwide to monitor the HIV epidemic. In Spectrum, HIV incidence trends among adults (aged 15-49 years) are derived by either fitting to seroprevalence surveillance and survey data or generating curves consistent with case surveillance and vital registration data, such as historical trends in the number of newly diagnosed infections or AIDS-related deaths. This article describes development and application of the case surveillance and vital registration (CSAVR) tool for the 2019 estimate round. Incidence in CSAVR is either estimated directly using single logistic, double logistic, or spline functions, or indirectly via the 'r-logistic' model, which represents the (log-transformed) per-capita transmission rate using a logistic function. The propensity to get diagnosed is assumed to be monotonic, following a Gamma cumulative distribution function and proportional to mortality as a function of time since infection. Model parameters are estimated from a combination of historical surveillance data on newly reported HIV cases, mean CD4 at HIV diagnosis and estimates of AIDS-related deaths from vital registration systems. Baye...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jul 26, 2019·AIDS·Mary MahyPeter D Ghys
Mar 13, 2021·Scientific Reports·Cari van SchalkwykLeigh F Johnson
Sep 22, 2021·Journal of the International AIDS Society·Severin G MahianeKimberly Marsh
Sep 22, 2021·Journal of the International AIDS Society·John StoverCaitlin M Dugdale

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Software Mentioned

EPP
Spectrum Impact
Spectrum
Estimates and Projection Package ( EPP )
CSAVR

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