Estimating Loss of Brucella Abortus Antibodies from Age-Specific Serological Data In Elk

EcoHealth
J A BenavidesPaul C Cross

Abstract

Serological data are one of the primary sources of information for disease monitoring in wildlife. However, the duration of the seropositive status of exposed individuals is almost always unknown for many free-ranging host species. Directly estimating rates of antibody loss typically requires difficult longitudinal sampling of individuals following seroconversion. Instead, we propose a Bayesian statistical approach linking age and serological data to a mechanistic epidemiological model to infer brucellosis infection, the probability of antibody loss, and recovery rates of elk (Cervus canadensis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that seroprevalence declined above the age of ten, with no evidence of disease-induced mortality. The probability of antibody loss was estimated to be 0.70 per year after a five-year period of seropositivity and the basic reproduction number for brucellosis to 2.13. Our results suggest that individuals are unlikely to become re-infected because models with this mechanism were unable to reproduce a significant decline in seroprevalence in older individuals. This study highlights the possible implications of antibody loss, which could bias our estimation of critical epidemiological parameters...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jul 18, 2020·Transboundary and Emerging Diseases·Maryam DadarJacques Godfroid
Dec 7, 2018·Ecology and Evolution·Gavin G CotterillJohan T du Toit
Jul 1, 2020·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Julio A BenavidesDaniel G Streicker
Mar 14, 2018·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Gavin G CotterillJohan T du Toit
Jun 7, 2018·Frontiers in Veterinary Science·Shelly Lachish, Kris A Murray

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