Abstract
We consider the question of what method should be recommended to estimate the prevalence of injecting drug use (IDU); and compare multiplier and capture-recapture (CRC) methods of estimating prevalence of injecting drug use (IDU). The prevalence of injecting drug use in four cities (Brighton, Liverpool, London and Togliatti) was estimated using similar methods: covariate capture-recapture (CRC) and multipliers. The multipliers, generated either from a community recruited survey or historical/literature-based, were applied to a range of 'benchmarks': specialist drug treatment, arrests, accident and emergency department (A&E), syringe exchange, HIV tests and opiate overdose deaths. The CRC estimates were assumed to be 'preferred/gold standard' [2,304 (95% confidence interval 1,514 - 3,737) in Brighton, 2,910 (2,546 - 4,977) in Liverpool, 16,782 (13,793 - 21,620) in 12 London boroughs and 15,039 (12,696 - 18,515) male IDU in Togliatti]. The ranges given by the multiplier estimates obtained through the community survey varied from 200 to 770 in Brighton, 530 to 1,300 in Liverpool, 2,900 to 10,600 in London and 12,400 to 91,000 in Togliatti. Several multipliers gave implausible results, lower than the observed data collected for ano...Continue Reading
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