Estimating prevalence of type I and type II diabetes using incidence rates: the SEARCH for diabetes in youth study

Annals of Epidemiology
Thaddäus TönniesRalph Brinks

Abstract

Most surveillance efforts in childhood diabetes have focused on incidence, whereas prevalence is rarely reported. This study aimed to assess whether a mathematical illness-death model accurately estimated future prevalence from baseline prevalence and incidence rates in children. SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth is an ongoing population-based surveillance study of prevalence and incidence of diabetes and its complications among youth in the United States. We used age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific SEARCH estimates of the prevalence of type I and type II diabetes in 2001 and incidence from 2002 to 2008. These data were used in a partial differential equation to estimate prevalence in 2009 with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. Model-based prevalence was compared with the observed prevalence in 2009. Most confidence intervals for the difference between estimated and observed prevalence included zero, indicating no evidence for a difference between the two methods. The width of confidence intervals indicated high precision for the estimated prevalence when considering all races/ethnicities. In strata with few cases, precision was reduced. Future prevalence of type I and type II diabetes in youth may be accurately estimated from...Continue Reading

Citations

Feb 6, 2021·Disease-a-month : DM·Berrin Ergun-LongmireDonald E Greydanus

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