Estimating recurrence and incidence of preterm birth subject to measurement error in gestational age: A hidden Markov modeling approach

Statistics in Medicine
Paul S Albert

Abstract

Prediction of preterm birth as well as characterizing the etiological factors affecting both the recurrence and incidence of preterm birth (defined as gestational age at birth ≤ 37 wk) are important problems in obstetrics. The National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) consecutive pregnancy study recently examined this question by collecting data on a cohort of women with at least 2 pregnancies over a fixed time interval. Unfortunately, measurement error due to the dating of conception may induce sizable error in computing gestational age at birth. This article proposes a flexible approach that accounts for measurement error in gestational age when making inference. The proposed approach is a hidden Markov model that accounts for measurement error in gestational age by exploiting the relationship between gestational age at birth and birth weight. We initially model the measurement error as being normally distributed, followed by a mixture of normals that has been proposed on the basis of biological considerations. We examine the asymptotic bias of the proposed approach when measurement error is ignored and also compare the efficiency of this approach to a simpler hidden Markov model formulation where only ...Continue Reading

References

Feb 9, 1999·American Journal of Public Health·H K GjessingA J Wilcox
Apr 21, 2001·Biometrics·P S Albert
Nov 13, 2008·Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology·Caroline S HoffmanKatherine E Hartmann
Sep 17, 2013·American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology·S Katherine LaughonPauline Mendola
Sep 24, 2013·Journal of the American Statistical Association·Edward H IpStephen Kritchevsky
Feb 13, 2014·Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Canada : JOGC = Journal D'obstétrique Et Gynécologie Du Canada : JOGC·Shia SalemUNKNOWN SOGC DIAGNOSTIC IMAGING COMMITTEE
Jun 3, 2015·American Journal of Epidemiology·Katherine L GrantzPaul S Albert
Mar 14, 2018·Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied Statistics·Ashok ChaurasiaPaul S Albert

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Citations

Aug 14, 2021·Annals of Epidemiology·Jennifer DunneGavin Pereira

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