Estimating the capacity for improvement in risk prediction with a marker.

Biostatistics
Wen Gu, Margaret S Pepe

Abstract

Consider a set of baseline predictors X to predict a binary outcome D and let Y be a novel marker or predictor. This paper is concerned with evaluating the performance of the augmented risk model P(D = 1|Y,X) compared with the baseline model P(D = 1|X). The diagnostic likelihood ratio, DLR(X)(y), quantifies the change in risk obtained with knowledge of Y = y for a subject with baseline risk factors X. The notion is commonly used in clinical medicine to quantify the increment in risk prediction due to Y. It is contrasted here with the notion of covariate-adjusted effect of Y in the augmented risk model. We also propose methods for making inference about DLR(X)(y). Case-control study designs are accommodated. The methods provide a mechanism to investigate if the predictive information in Y varies with baseline covariates. In addition, we show that when combined with a baseline risk model and information about the population distribution of Y given X, covariate-specific predictiveness curves can be estimated. These curves are useful to an individual in deciding if ascertainment of Y is likely to be informative or not for him. We illustrate with data from 2 studies: one is a study of the performance of hearing screening tests for i...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jul 20, 2010·Biostatistics·Wen Gu, Margaret Sullivan Pepe
Sep 14, 2012·Journal of Medical Genetics·Anika HüsingUNKNOWN BPC3
Jan 1, 2009·The International Journal of Biostatistics·Wen Gu, Margaret Pepe
Jan 30, 2013·Lifetime Data Analysis·Aasthaa Bansal, Margaret Sullivan Pepe
Dec 13, 2016·Statistics in Medicine·Sonja GrillRuth M Pfeiffer
Apr 21, 2017·Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology : the Official Journal of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology·U SovioG C S Smith
Aug 5, 2014·Annals of Neurology·Regina SchlaegerRoland G Henry
Sep 22, 2018·AJR. American Journal of Roentgenology·Camila Lopes VendramiRobert J McCarthy
Oct 22, 2019·The Journal of Craniofacial Surgery·Emily BorstingMona Ascha
Jun 28, 2020·Journal of Medical Genetics·Alice Alessandra GaleottiDaniele Campa
Nov 19, 2011·Biometrical Journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift·Donna P AnkerstIan M Thompson
Jul 18, 2017·Academic Emergency Medicine : Official Journal of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine·Byunghyun KimSung Phil Chung
Jan 14, 2021·International Journal of Sports Medicine·Emeline VignaudAlban Fouasson-Chailloux
Dec 1, 2020·European Journal of Emergency Medicine : Official Journal of the European Society for Emergency Medicine·Arthur JamesUNKNOWN TRAUMABASE Group
Jun 29, 2021·Journal of Vestibular Research : Equilibrium & Orientation·Laura Riera-TurAlfonso M Lechuga-Sancho

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