Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe.

Nature
Seth FlaxmanSamir Bhatt

Abstract

Following the detection of the new coronavirus1 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In response, many European countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as the closure of schools and national lockdowns. Here we study the effect of major interventions across 11 European countries for the period from the start of the COVID-19 epidemics in February 2020 until 4 May 2020, when lockdowns started to be lifted. Our model calculates backwards from observed deaths to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks previously, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. We use partial pooling of information between countries, with both individual and shared effects on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt). Pooling allows for more information to be used, helps to overcome idiosyncrasies in the data and enables more-timely estimates. Our model relies on fixed estimates of some epidemiological parameters (such as the infection fatality rate), does not include importation or subnational variation and assumes that changes in Rt are an immediate response to interventio...Continue Reading

Associated Clinical Trials

References

Jan 19, 2010·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Edward GoldsteinMarc Lipsitch
Jul 26, 2012·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Joel C Miller
Sep 18, 2013·American Journal of Epidemiology·Anne CoriSimon Cauchemez
Oct 24, 2019·Scientific Reports·Juanjuan ZhangHongjie Yu
Mar 30, 2020·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Juanjuan ZhaoZheng Zhang
Apr 3, 2020·The Lancet Infectious Diseases·Robert VerityNeil M Ferguson
May 15, 2020·Science·Henrik SaljeSimon Cauchemez
Jun 6, 2020·The Lancet. Public Health·Nicholas G DaviesUNKNOWN Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group
Jun 11, 2020·Wellcome Open Research·Thibaut JombartW John Edmunds
Jun 24, 2020·Gaceta sanitaria·Alexandre Hyafil, David Moriña
Jun 26, 2020·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Christian ErikstrupHenrik Ullum
Jan 28, 2021·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Christian ErikstrupHenrik Ullum

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

May 23, 2020·Science·Johannes Haushofer, C Jessica E Metcalf
Aug 13, 2020·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Robin N ThompsonOlivier Restif
Aug 18, 2020·Knee Surgery, Sports Traumatology, Arthroscopy : Official Journal of the ESSKA·Simon T DonellNanne P Kort
Sep 2, 2020·Journal of Medical Internet Research·Nuria OliverKristof Roomp
Aug 26, 2020·Journal of Travel Medicine·Borame L DickensAlex R Cook
Sep 24, 2020·PloS One·Haroldo V RibeiroQuentin S Hanley
Sep 25, 2020·Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS·Xin LiJasper Fuk-Woo Chan
Sep 13, 2020·Aging Clinical and Experimental Research·Salvatore CaratozzoloUNKNOWN COVIDEM Network
Jun 11, 2020·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Jacqui Wise
Jul 24, 2020·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·Bastian FischerTanja Vollmer
Jul 31, 2020·BMC Medicine·Laura Di DomenicoVittoria Colizza
Aug 25, 2020·Environmental & Resource Economics·Ben BalmfordIan J Bateman
Jul 1, 2020·The International Journal of Risk & Safety in Medicine·Victor GrechStephanie Fabri
Aug 25, 2020·Computational Mechanics·Kevin LinkaEllen Kuhl
Aug 10, 2020·Nature Medicine·Ellie Sherrard-SmithThomas S Churcher
Sep 25, 2020·Scientific Reports·Giacomo CacciapagliaFrancesco Sannino
Sep 10, 2020·Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz·Edson DelatorreGonzalo Bello
Aug 14, 2020·ELife·David J PriceJames M McCaw
Aug 25, 2020·Environmental & Resource Economics·David KlenertBrian O'Callaghan
Jul 1, 2020·Nature·Enrico LavezzoUNKNOWN Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
Aug 28, 2020·Physics of Fluids·Hilla De-Leon, Francesco Pederiva
Sep 11, 2020·Nature Reviews. Immunology·Arnaud Fontanet, Simon Cauchemez
Sep 10, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Kristoffer Rypdal, Martin Rypdal
Aug 23, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·T Alex PerkinsMarya Poterek
Aug 8, 2020·Nature·Megan Scudellari
Jul 15, 2020·Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness·James M ShultzSandro Galea
Sep 12, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Khalid A KheirallahFawaz Mzayek
Sep 6, 2020·Nature Reviews. Immunology·Mangalakumari JeyanathanZhou Xing
Jul 30, 2020·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Susan Michie, Robert West
Aug 28, 2020·Clinical Epidemiology·Anton PottegårdNikolai C Brun

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

EpiEstim

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.