Estimating the life course of influenza A(H3N2) antibody responses from cross-sectional data

PLoS Biology
Adam J KucharskiSteven Riley

Abstract

The immunity of a host population against specific influenza A strains can influence a number of important biological processes, from the emergence of new virus strains to the effectiveness of vaccination programmes. However, the development of an individual's long-lived antibody response to influenza A over the course of a lifetime remains poorly understood. Accurately describing this immunological process requires a fundamental understanding of how the mechanisms of boosting and cross-reactivity respond to repeated infections. Establishing the contribution of such mechanisms to antibody titres remains challenging because the aggregate effect of immune responses over a lifetime are rarely observed directly. To uncover the aggregate effect of multiple influenza infections, we developed a mechanistic model capturing both past infections and subsequent antibody responses. We estimated parameters of the model using cross-sectional antibody titres to nine different strains spanning 40 years of circulation of influenza A(H3N2) in southern China. We found that "antigenic seniority" and quickly decaying cross-reactivity were important components of the immune response, suggesting that the order in which individuals were infected with ...Continue Reading

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