Estimating the potential contribution of stroke treatments and preventative policies to reduce the stroke and ischemic heart disease mortality in Turkey up to 2032: a modelling study

BMC Public Health
Duygu IslekMartin O'Flaherty

Abstract

Stroke and Ischemic Heart Diseases (IHD) are the main cause of premature deaths globally, including Turkey. There is substantial potential to reduce stroke and IHD mortality burden; particularly by improving diet and health behaviours at the population level. Our aim is to estimate and compare the potential impact of ischemic stroke treatment vs population level policies on ischemic stroke and IHD deaths in Turkey if achieved like other developed countries up to 2022 and 2032. We developed a Markov model for the Turkish population aged >35 years. The model follows the population over a time horizon of 10 and 20 years. We modelled seven policy scenarios: a baseline scenario, three ischemic stroke treatment improvement scenarios and three population level policy intervention scenarios (based on target reductions in dietary salt, transfat and unsaturated fat intake, smoking prevalence and increases in fruit and vegetable consumption). Parameter uncertainty was explored by including probabilistic sensitivity analysis. In the baseline scenario, we forecast that approximately 655,180 ischemic stroke and IHD deaths (306,500 in men; 348,600 in women) may occur in the age group of 35-94 between 2012 and 2022 in Turkey. Feasible interven...Continue Reading

References

Mar 10, 1999·Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery, and Psychiatry·A Algra, J van Gijn
May 30, 2003·Population Health Metrics·Jan J BarendregtChristopher JL Murray
Feb 17, 2006·European Journal of Clinical Nutrition·T LaatikainenJ Tuomilehto
Feb 24, 2006·Health Economics·Mark J SculpherChris McCabe
May 23, 2006·Atherosclerosis. Supplements·Torben LethAnette Bysted
Jul 5, 2006·Hypertension·Haifeng ZhangJan A Staessen
Oct 19, 2007·The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews·UNKNOWN Stroke Unit Trialists' Collaboration
Jul 23, 2008·The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews·Peter A G SandercockMei-Chiun Tseng
Feb 13, 2009·The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition·Marianne U JakobsenAlberto Ascherio
Jul 22, 2009·Annals of Internal Medicine·Sonia Y AngellMary T Bassett
Oct 13, 2009·The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews·Joanna M WardlawGregory J Del Zoppo
Nov 26, 2009·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Pasquale StrazzulloFrancesco P Cappuccio
Jan 22, 2010·The New England Journal of Medicine·Kirsten Bibbins-DomingoLee Goldman
Apr 17, 2010·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Dariush Mozaffarian, Meir J Stampfer
Jun 2, 2010·Public Health Nutrition·Pirjo PietinenLiisa M Valsta
Sep 21, 2010·Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : a Publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, Cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology·John P PierceDavid W Cowling
Dec 3, 2010·The Journal of the Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh·G J Hankey
Mar 19, 2011·Lancet·Simon Capewell, Martin O'Flaherty
Aug 13, 2011·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Francesco P CappuccioKlim McPherson
Apr 20, 2013·Bulletin of the World Health Organization·Shauna M DownsStephen R Leeder
Dec 7, 2013·Stroke; a Journal of Cerebral Circulation·Daniel T LacklandUNKNOWN Council on Functional Genomics and Translational Biology
Jan 23, 2014·Lancet·Valery L FeiginUNKNOWN Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) and the GBD Stroke Experts Group
May 9, 2014·The New England Journal of Medicine·Kelly D Brownell, Jennifer L Pomeranz

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Jan 21, 2017·Circulation Research·George A MensahDavid Gordon
May 21, 2020·Biodemography and Social Biology·Stephen BlanchardDavid W Smith
Sep 11, 2020·Health & Social Care in the Community·Bayram Şahin, Gülnur İlgün
Oct 26, 2018·Stroke; a Journal of Cerebral Circulation·Viktoria RückerPeter U Heuschmann

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

DISMOD
Excel
TurkStat
Excel Ersatz
IMPACT

Related Concepts

Related Feeds

Brain Ischemia

Brain ischemia is a condition in which there is insufficient blood flow to the brain to meet metabolic demand. Discover the latest research on brain ischemia here.