Estimating the undetected infections in the Covid-19 outbreak by harnessing capture-recapture methods.

International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases
Dankmar BöhningH. Holling

Abstract

A major open question, affecting the decisions of policy makers, is the estimation of the true number of Covid-19 infections. Most of them are undetected, because of a large number of asymptomatic cases. We provide an efficient, easy to compute and robust lower bound estimator for the number of undetected cases. A modified version of the Chao estimator is proposed, based on the cumulative time-series distributions of cases and deaths. Heterogeneity has been addressed by assuming a geometrical distribution underlying the data generation process. An (approximated) analytical variance of the estimator has been derived to compute reliable confidence intervals at 95% level. A motivating application to the Austrian situation is provided and compared with an independent and representative study on prevalence of Covid-19 infection. Our estimates match well with the results from the independent prevalence study, but the capture-recapture estimate has less uncertainty involved as it is based on a larger sample size. Results from other European countries are mentioned in the discussion. The estimated ratio of the total estimated cases to the observed cases is around the value of 2.3 for all the analyzed countries. The proposed method answ...Continue Reading

Citations

Jul 13, 2020·Aging Clinical and Experimental Research·Antonello MaruottiAntonio Nicita
Dec 1, 2020·Biometrical Journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift·Alessio FarcomeniGianfranco Lovison
Feb 23, 2021·Journal of Mathematical Economics·Andrea AspriEtienne Wasmer
Mar 22, 2021·Methods : a Companion to Methods in Enzymology·Jeanne M FairWilliam Rosenberger
Mar 23, 2021·JMIR Medical Informatics·Alessio StaffiniThomas Svensson
Jan 8, 2021·American Journal of Epidemiology·Dylan Parker, Oleg Pianykh
May 1, 2021·Biology·Anna FochesatoLuca Marchetti
Oct 13, 2020·International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases·Ziv KlausnerShmuel C Shapira
Aug 12, 2021·Biometrical Journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift·Marc SchnebleUrsula Berger
Aug 24, 2021·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Françoise KempStefano Magni
Jan 11, 2022·Aging Clinical and Experimental Research·Antonello MaruottiAlessio Farcomeni

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