Estimation of PM2·5 -associated disease burden in China in 2020 and 2030 using population and air quality scenarios: a modelling study

The Lancet. Planetary Health
Qing WangTiantian Li

Abstract

Air pollution and its adverse effects on public health remain a considerable problem in China, where policies have been implemented to improve the situation. We aimed to estimate the disease burden associated with particulate matter (PM)2·5 across China for 2020 and 2030 to identify the populations and regions most at risk, quantify the health benefits of air quality improvement targets, and determine the effect of population growth and ageing on this disease burden. In this modelling study, we investigated premature deaths associated with PM2·5 across China on the basis of air quality scenarios proposed by the expert group involved in the formulation of the 13th Five-Year Plan for Eco-Environmental Protection and population scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We used the integrated exposure-response model used for the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate the number of PM2·5-related premature deaths under each scenario. The projected health benefits of the air-quality-improving targets are substantial, and could reduce the number of PM2.5-related premature deaths in China by approximately 129 278 by 2020 and 217 988 by 2030, compared with 2010. However, si...Continue Reading

Citations

Mar 27, 2020·BMJ Open Respiratory Research·Michael J AbramsonTamara Schikowski
Sep 11, 2019·Environmental Science and Pollution Research International·Chengdong XuGexin Xiao
Jul 19, 2020·The Lancet. Planetary Health·Kai ChenPaul T Anastas
Jul 3, 2021·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Sungbo ShimGuang Zeng

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