Estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers underlying epidemiological processes: A new statistical tool for the COVID-19 pandemic

PloS One
Hyokyoung G Hong, Yi Li

Abstract

The coronavirus pandemic has rapidly evolved into an unprecedented crisis. The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model and its variants have been used for modeling the pandemic. However, time-independent parameters in the classical models may not capture the dynamic transmission and removal processes, governed by virus containment strategies taken at various phases of the epidemic. Moreover, few models account for possible inaccuracies of the reported cases. We propose a Poisson model with time-dependent transmission and removal rates to account for possible random errors in reporting and estimate a time-dependent disease reproduction number, which may reflect the effectiveness of virus control strategies. We apply our method to study the pandemic in several severely impacted countries, and analyze and forecast the evolving spread of the coronavirus. We have developed an interactive web application to facilitate readers' use of our method.

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Citations

Aug 26, 2020·PloS One·Ulrich NguemdjoBruno Ventelou
Oct 13, 2020·The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews·Khai Li ChaiNicole Skoetz
Mar 12, 2021·PloS One·Eun-Young Mun, Feng Geng
Mar 26, 2021·Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness·David CallawayCrystal Watson
Apr 25, 2021·Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering : MBE·Youtian HaoM Tariqul Hasan
May 3, 2021·Value in Health : the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research·Anirban Basu, Varun J Gandhay
Dec 15, 2020·Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology : the Official Journal of the Society of Hospital Epidemiologists of America·Arni S R Srinivasa RaoKurapati Sudhakar
Jun 3, 2021·JMIRx Med·Eduardo Atem De Carvalho, Rogerio Atem De Carvalho
Jun 1, 2021·Journal of Geographical Systems·Timo Mitze, Reinhold Kosfeld
Jul 18, 2021·Physical Review. E·Gil Ariel, Yoram Louzoun
Sep 2, 2021·Journal of Research in Health Sciences·Ebrahim RahimiRasool Mohammadi
Nov 24, 2020··Balázs PejóGergely Biczók

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Software Mentioned

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