Evaluating the added value of multi-input atmospheric transport ensemble modeling for applications of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty organization (CTBTO).

Journal of Environmental Radioactivity
C MaurerP Bourgouin

Abstract

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) runs to date operationally an atmospheric transport modeling chain in backward mode based on operational deterministic European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS) and on National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) input data. Meanwhile, ensemble dispersion modeling is becoming more and more widespread due to the ever increasing computational power and storage capacities. The potential benefit of this approach for current and possible future CTBTO applications was investigated using data from the ECMWF-Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). Five different test cases - among which are the ETEX-I experiment and the Fukushima accident - were run in backward or forward mode and - in the light of a future operational application - special emphasis was put on the performance of an arbitrarily selected 10- versus the full 51-member ensemble. For those test cases run in backward mode and based on a puff release it became evident that Possible Source Regions (PSRs) can be meaningfully reduced in size compared to results based solely on the deterministic run by applying minimum and probability of e...Continue Reading

References

Feb 24, 2009·Journal of Environmental Radioactivity·Paul R J Saey
Mar 29, 2014·Journal of Environmental Radioactivity·E Solazzo, S Galmarini
Sep 4, 2015·Nature·Peter BauerGilbert Brunet
Jan 1, 2018·Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics·Stefano GalmariniAlper Unal

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