Evaluating the effects of climate change on US agricultural systems: sensitivity to regional impact and trade expansion scenarios

Environmental Research Letters : ERL [Web Site]
Justin S BakerJames McFarland

Abstract

Agriculture is one of the sectors that is expected to be most significantly impacted by climate change. There has been considerable interest in assessing these impacts and many recent studies investigating agricultural impacts for individual countries and regions using an array of models. However, the great majority of existing studies explore impacts on a country or region of interest without explicitly accounting for impacts on the rest of the world. This approach can bias the results of impact assessments for agriculture given the importance of global trade in this sector. Due to potential impacts on relative competitiveness, international trade, global supply, and prices, the net impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in each region depend not only on productivity impacts within that region, but on how climate change impacts agricultural productivity throughout the world. In this study, we apply a global model of agriculture and forestry to evaluate climate change impacts on US agriculture with and without accounting for climate change impacts in the rest of the world. In addition, we examine scenarios where trade is expanded to explore the implications for regional allocation of production, trade volumes, and...Continue Reading

References

Dec 18, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Mario HerreroMichael Obersteiner
Dec 18, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Gerald C NelsonDirk Willenbockel
Feb 26, 2014·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Petr HavlíkAn Notenbaert
Dec 27, 2016·Carbon Balance and Management·Nicklas ForsellPetr Havlik

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Citations

Feb 11, 2021·Nature Climate Change·Charlotte JanssensMiet Maertens

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Software Mentioned

ESM2M
MIROC
GFDL
ESM
RUMINANT
EPIC
HadGEM2
CHEM
G4M
ISIMIP

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