Evaluation and recommendation of sensitivity analysis methods for application to Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation models

Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology
Amirhossein MokhtariJunyu Zheng

Abstract

Sensitivity analyses of exposure or risk models can help identify the most significant factors to aid in risk management or to prioritize additional research to reduce uncertainty in the estimates. However, sensitivity analysis is challenged by non-linearity, interactions between inputs, and multiple days or time scales. Selected sensitivity analysis methods are evaluated with respect to their applicability to human exposure models with such features using a testbed. The testbed is a simplified version of a US Environmental Protection Agency's Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model. The methods evaluated include the Pearson and Spearman correlation, sample and rank regression, analysis of variance, Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST), and Sobol's method. The first five methods are known as "sampling-based" techniques, wheras the latter two methods are known as "variance-based" techniques. The main objective of the test cases was to identify the main and total contributions of individual inputs to the output variance. Sobol's method and FAST directly quantified these measures of sensitivity. Results show that sensitivity of an input typically changed when evaluated under different time scales (e.g., da...Continue Reading

References

Jun 29, 2002·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·J C Helton, F J Davis
Mar 2, 2006·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Amirhossein Mokhtari, H Christopher Frey
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Feb 6, 2008·IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks·R H KewleyC Breneman

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Citations

Feb 19, 2009·Toxicological Sciences : an Official Journal of the Society of Toxicology·Kenneth T BogenPaul S Price
Feb 1, 2015·CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology·X-Y ZhangS Schmidt
Apr 6, 2007·Nature Reviews. Cancer·Elizabeth S Yeh, Anthony R Means
Dec 11, 2007·Toxicological Sciences : an Official Journal of the Society of Toxicology·Robert J KavlockEric Weber
Jul 12, 2012·Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology·Bruce M YoungDavid E Barnekow
Jul 21, 2017·Environmental Health Perspectives·Julia R Barrett
Jun 18, 2020·Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology·Christina Cowan-EllsberryElke Jensen

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