Evaluation and uncertainty estimation of the impact of air quality modelling on crop yields and premature deaths using a multi-model ensemble

The Science of the Total Environment
Efisio SolazzoStefano Galmarini

Abstract

This study promotes the critical use of air pollution modelling results for health and agriculture impacts, with the primary goal of providing more reliable estimates to decision makers. To date, the accuracy of air quality (AQ) models and the effects of model-to-model result variability (which we will refer to as model uncertainty) on impact assessment studies have been often ignored, thus undermining the robustness of the information used in the decision making process and the confidence in the results obtained. A suite of twelve PM2.5 and ozone concentration fields produced by regional-scale chemistry transport Air Quality (AQ) models during the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) has been used to calculate the impact of air pollution on premature deaths and crop yields. An innovative technique is applied to bias-adjust the models to available observations. The model results for ozone and PM2.5 are combined in a multi-model (MM) ensemble, which is used to estimate the damage and economic cost to human health and crop yields, as well as the associated uncertainties. The MM ensemble quantifies directly the uncertainty introduced by AQ models into the air pollution impact assessment...Continue Reading

Citations

Apr 19, 2020·Scientific Data·Monica CrippaGreet Janssens-Maenhout
Mar 7, 2021·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Tavoos Hassan BhatHooman Farzaneh
Sep 20, 2019·Environmental Science & Technology·Xiangyu Jiang, Eun-Hye Enki Yoo
Oct 7, 2021·Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association·Stefano Galmarini, Christian Hogrefe

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