Evaluation of Prediction Models for Type 2 Diabetes Relapse After Post-bariatric Surgery Remission: a Post hoc Analysis of 15-Year Follow-up Data from the Swedish Obese Subjects (SOS) Study.

Obesity Surgery
Kajsa SjöholmMarkku Peltonen

Abstract

Many patients achieve type 2 diabetes (T2D) remission after bariatric surgery, but relapse after post-surgery remission is common. Scoring models accurately predict remission up to 5 years after surgery but have not been tested for prediction of long-term T2D relapse. The aim of this work was to test the ability of prediction models and single predictors to identify patients at risk of long-term relapse (10-15 years) after post-surgery T2D remission. We identified 222 individuals with T2D from the surgically treated group in the prospective Swedish Obese Subjects study, who were in remission at the 2-year follow-up and had data available for prediction of long-term T2D relapse. T2D remission/relapse was assessed after 10 and 15 years. Model performance (discrimination) was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. Preoperative prediction of relapse using scores DiaRem, Ad-DiaRem, and DiaBetter and T2D duration alone was poor, as indicated by AUROC curves between 0.61-0.64 at 10 years and 0.62-0.66 at 15 years. Likewise, the 5y-Ad-DiaRem score, which includes early postoperative measures, resulted in AUROC curves of 0.65 and 0.70 for relapse at 10 and 15 years, respectively. Two-year weigh...Continue Reading

References

Jun 10, 1993·The New England Journal of Medicine·D M Nathan
Aug 24, 2007·The New England Journal of Medicine·Lars SjöströmUNKNOWN Swedish Obese Subjects Study
Aug 24, 2012·The New England Journal of Medicine·Lena M S CarlssonLars Sjöström
Mar 1, 2014·The Lancet. Diabetes & Endocrinology·Christopher D StillGeorge Argyropoulos
Jun 11, 2014·JAMA : the Journal of the American Medical Association·Lars SjöströmLena M S Carlsson
Apr 21, 2016·JAMA Surgery·G Craig WoodAnnemarie G Hirsch
Jul 26, 2017·Annals of Surgery·Ali AminianPhilip R Schauer
Aug 12, 2017·BMC Endocrine Disorders·Chrysi KoliakiAlexander Kokkinos
Sep 27, 2018·Obesity Surgery·Shih-Chiang ShenYen-Hao Su
Dec 19, 2018·Diabetes Care·UNKNOWN American Diabetes Association
Jan 25, 2020·Diabetes Care·Ali AminianKamal Mahawar

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
gastric
gastric bypass

Software Mentioned

Ad
Stata
DiaRem
DiaBetter

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