Ex-ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub-Saharan Africa

Food and Energy Security
Sika GbegbelegbePetros Mkandawire

Abstract

This study undertakes an ex-ante evaluation of the effects of alternative technology and policy options on soybean supply and demand in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to 2050. Current soybean consumption in SSA is dominated by cooking oil followed by soybean cake used as animal feed. Due to weak processing sectors and low soybean yields, the region is currently importing about 70% of its consumption requirements. Based on the results from a geospatial bio-economic modeling framework, soybean consumption in SSA is projected to more than double by 2050 compared to 2010 due in part to a rising population and rising incomes. On the other hand, supply from domestic production is projected to increase by 80% over the same period. Hence, by 2050, net imports into SSA would be nearly 4 times higher than supply from domestic production. Under a future drier climate, some of the production gains achieved through soybean research and extension would be lost and this would further worsen the soybean demand gap in SSA relative to the baseline. This study shows that relying on conventional breeding alone to increase soybean yields in SSA would not be enough to substantially reduce the future demand gap. A combination of promising innovations affec...Continue Reading

References

Dec 18, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Lila WarszawskiJacob Schewe

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DbleArea
LPJmL
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NoCC
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Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer ( DSSAT )
Hadley Global Environment Climate Model ( HadGEM2 ES )
HadGEM
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