Excess burden of non-communicable disease years of life lost from heat in rural Burkina Faso: a time series analysis of the years 2000-2010

BMJ Open
Aditi BunkerRainer Sauerborn

Abstract

Investigate the association of heat exposure on years of life lost (YLL) from non-communicable diseases (NCD) in Nouna, Burkina Faso, between 2000 and 2010. Daily time series regression analysis using distributed lag non-linear models, assuming a quasi-Poisson distribution of YLL. Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Kossi Province, Rural Burkina Faso. 18 367 NCD-YLL corresponding to 790 NCD deaths recorded in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance Site register over 11 years. Excess mean daily NCD-YLL were generated from the relative risk of maximum daily temperature on NCD-YLL, including effects delayed up to 14 days. Daily average NCD-YLL were 4.6, 2.4 and 2.1 person-years for all ages, men and women, respectively. Moderate 4-day cumulative rise in maximum temperature from 36.4°C (50th percentile) to 41.4°C (90th percentile) resulted in 4.44 (95% CI 0.24 to 12.28) excess daily NCD-YLL for all ages, rising to 7.39 (95% CI 0.32 to 24.62) at extreme temperature (42.8°C; 99th percentile). The strongest health effects manifested on the day of heat exposure (lag 0), where 0.81 (95% CI 0.13 to 1.59) excess mean NCD-YLL occurred daily at 41.7°C compared with 36.4°C, diminishing in statistical significance after 4...Continue Reading

Software Mentioned

R
Time Indexes and Time Indexed Series ( tis )

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