Excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic: Early evidence from England and Wales.

Social Science & Medicine
Sotiris Vandoros

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has claimed many lives in the UK and globally. The objective of this paper is to study whether the number of deaths not registered as Covid-19-related has increased compared to what would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic. Reasons behind this might include Covid-19 underreporting, avoiding visits to hospitals or GPs, and the effects of the lockdown. I used weekly ONS data on the number of deaths in England and Wales that did not officially involve Covid-19 over the period 2015-2020. Simply observing trends is not sufficient as spikes in deaths may occasionally occur. I thus followed a difference-in-differences econometric approach to study whether there was a relative increase in deaths not registered as Covid-19-related during the pandemic, compared to a control. Results suggest that there were an additional 968 weekly deaths that officially did not involve Covid-19, compared to what would have otherwise been expected. It is possible that some people are dying from Covid-19 without being diagnosed, and/or that there are excess deaths due to other causes as a result of the pandemic. Analysing the cause of death for any excess non-covid-19 deaths will shed light upon the reasons for the incr...Continue Reading

Citations

Aug 11, 2020·Journal of Public Health·Jose Miguel Baena-DíezMaría Grau
Oct 2, 2020·PloS One·Paolo BuonannoMarcello Puca
Oct 28, 2020·Personality and Individual Differences·Eugene Y Chan
Mar 25, 2021·Journal of Population Research·Han Lin Shang, Ruofan Xu
Apr 23, 2021·Health Economics·Caterina AlacevichCatia Nicodemo
May 1, 2021·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Kamil BarańskiJan Eugeniusz Zejda
May 9, 2021·Injury Prevention : Journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention·Sotiris Vandoros
Jun 12, 2021·American Journal of Public Health·Megan ToddCheryl Bettigole
Jun 29, 2021·Journal of Population Economics·Augusto CerquaSara Miccoli
Jul 14, 2021·Sociology of Health & Illness·David Armstrong
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Aug 15, 2021·International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases·Valerio Marra, Miguel Quartin
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Oct 30, 2021·BMC Infectious Diseases·Vinicius AlbaniJorge Zubelli
Jul 6, 2021·Health & Social Care in the Community·Moritz OberndorferMichael Bach

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