Expansion of the Sahara Desert and shrinking of frozen land of the Arctic.

Scientific Reports
Ye Liu, Yongkang Xue

Abstract

Expansion of the Sahara Desert (SD) and greening of the Arctic tundra-glacier region (ArcTG) have been hot subjects under extensive investigations. However, quantitative and comprehensive assessments of the landform changes in these regions are lacking. Here we use both observations and climate-ecosystem models to quantify/project changes in the extents and boundaries of the SD and ArcTG based on climate and vegetation indices. It is found that, based on observed climate indices, the SD expands 8% and the ArcTG shrinks 16% during 1950-2015, respectively. SD southern boundaries advance 100 km southward, and ArcTG boundaries are displaced about 50 km poleward in 1950-2015. The simulated trends based on climate and vegetation indices show consistent results with some differences probably due to missing anthropogenic forcing and two-way vegetation-climate feedback effect in simulations. The projected climate and vegetation indices show these trends will continue in 2015-2050.

References

Jul 19, 1991·Science·C J TuckerW W Newcomb
Nov 17, 2007·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·G M MacDonaldD W Beilman
Aug 18, 2009·Ecology Letters·Melanie A HarschRichard P Duncan
Jan 19, 2010·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Abigail L SwannScott C Doney
Jan 12, 2011·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Xuhui WangAnping Chen
Oct 12, 2013·Global Change Biology·Gerald V Frost, Howard E Epstein
Nov 26, 2015·Global Change Biology·Philip C ReidZaichun Zhu

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Software Mentioned

Clim
SD SD OBS - Clim
Veg
OBS
SSiB4
ArcTG
ArcTG CFS / SSiB4 - Clim
SD
- Clim
CRUTS

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