Exponential decay nonlinear regression analysis of patient survival curves: preliminary assessment in non-small cell lung cancer.

Lung Cancer : Journal of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer
David J StewartIgnacio I Wistuba

Abstract

For processes that follow first order kinetics, exponential decay nonlinear regression analysis (EDNRA) may delineate curve characteristics and suggest processes affecting curve shape. We conducted a preliminary feasibility assessment of EDNRA of patient survival curves. EDNRA was performed on Kaplan-Meier overall survival (OS) and time to relapse (TTR) curves for 323 patients with resected NSCLC and on OS and progression-free survival (PFS) curves from selected publications. In our resected patients, TTR curves were triphasic with a "cured" fraction of 60.7% (half-life [t1/2] >100,000 months), a rapidly relapsing group (7.4%, t1/2=5.9 months) and a slowly relapsing group (31.9%, t1/2=23.6 months). OS was uniphasic (t1/2=74.3 months), suggesting an impact of co-morbidities; hence, tumor molecular characteristics would more likely predict TTR than OS. Of 172 published curves analyzed, 72 (42%) were uniphasic, 92 (53%) were biphasic, 8 (5%) were triphasic. With first-line chemotherapy in advanced NSCLC, 87.5% of curves from 2 to 3 drug regimens were uniphasic vs. only 20% of those with best supportive care or 1 drug (p<0.001). 54% of curves from 2 to 3 drug regimens had convex rapid-decay phases vs. 0% with fewer agents (p<0.001)...Continue Reading

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Citations

Mar 26, 2014·Journal of Thoracic Oncology : Official Publication of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer·David J StewartIgnacio Ivan Wistuba
Nov 13, 2021·Cancer Medicine·David J StewartMartin Neil Reaume

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